SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY
FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
A brief period of small hail or locally gusty winds may occur for a
few hours Monday morning from northeast Arkansas into western
Kentucky. Otherwise, a few weak thunderstorms are possible extending
southwestward into east Texas.

...Arkansas into Kentucky...
Lift will be focused over the area early Monday morning with rain
and embedded thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z. These storms will
primarily be north of a front extending from northeast Arkansas into
western Kentucky. Forecast soundings indicate minimal elevated
instability, suggesting minimal hail potential. 

Later in the day, destabilization will occur south of the front,
from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee. However, by this
time, all large-scale support will be northeast of the area. With
weakening low-level flow and increasing midlevel subsidence, severe
weather is unlikely, and any additional diurnal storms may be quite
isolated.

...Florida...
Storms are from morning through afternoon mainly over south Florida
within the moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. With
850 mb winds up to 30 kt, westward-propagating storms could produce
gusty winds at times. Early storm development in an uncapped air
mass along with clouds will reduce heating in areas, thus storms are
not expected to be severe.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2020

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