SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A brief period of small hail or locally gusty winds may occur for a few hours Monday morning from northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky. Otherwise, a few weak thunderstorms are possible extending southwestward into east Texas. ...Arkansas into Kentucky... Lift will be focused over the area early Monday morning with rain and embedded thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z. These storms will primarily be north of a front extending from northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky. Forecast soundings indicate minimal elevated instability, suggesting minimal hail potential. Later in the day, destabilization will occur south of the front, from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee. However, by this time, all large-scale support will be northeast of the area. With weakening low-level flow and increasing midlevel subsidence, severe weather is unlikely, and any additional diurnal storms may be quite isolated. ...Florida... Storms are from morning through afternoon mainly over south Florida within the moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. With 850 mb winds up to 30 kt, westward-propagating storms could produce gusty winds at times. Early storm development in an uncapped air mass along with clouds will reduce heating in areas, thus storms are not expected to be severe. ..Jewell.. 10/18/2020
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