Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, the medium-range models are in reasonable agreement,
with an upper-level trough in the western U.S. and
west-southwesterly mid-level flow in the central and eastern U.S.
The models are forecasting an axis of low-level moisture to be
located in the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms may form along the northern edge of the moist sector
from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday
afternoon and evening but weak instability is expected to keep any
severe threat marginal.

On Thursday, the models move an upper-level trough into the Rockies
as southwest mid-level flow becomes established in the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward into the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening along the
front. However, weak instability should again keep any severe threat
marginal.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
The models continue in reasonable agreement from Friday to Saturday,
moving the cold front southeastward across the eastern third of the
nation. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front
from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and in the
Southeast on Saturday. Weak instability should again keep any severe
threat marginal. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to
move eastward across the southwestern states with southwest
mid-level flow located in the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible in the southern and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night
but the models have varying degrees of instability ahead of the
system. Due to significant model spread, predictability remains
quite low for Sunday.

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