SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z


Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South/ArkLaTex/East Texas...
Broad cyclonic upper flow will persist particularly over the
northern two-thirds of the CONUS today. However, there will be a
tendency for neutral if not weak height rises today atop a
slow-moving or stalled front extending from central/northeast Texas
northeastward into the Lower Ohio Valley.

Supported by persistent elevated moisture transport in vicinity of
the frontal zone, scattered thunderstorms will be most prevalent
today from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley. Relatively weak
elevated buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates are likely to limit the
potential for severe-caliber hail. Farther south, more isolated and
somewhat less certain thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex region. If/where storms do
develop, moderate surface-based buoyancy could support some stronger
updrafts/downdrafts, but very weak deep-layer shear will limit storm
organization with severe potential expected to remain very low.

...Florida Peninsula...
Similar to yesterday, a moist air mass and semi-strong low/mid-level
easterly winds will support westward-moving showers and
thunderstorms today. Early day cloud cover and precipitation will
tend to curb destabilization somewhat, but diurnal heating could
contribute to a few stronger storms into the afternoon. While
organized severe storms seem unlikely, a few thunderstorms storms
could produce gusty winds.

..Guyer.. 10/19/2020

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