SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South/ArkLaTex/East Texas... Broad cyclonic upper flow will persist particularly over the northern two-thirds of the CONUS today. However, there will be a tendency for neutral if not weak height rises today atop a slow-moving or stalled front extending from central/northeast Texas northeastward into the Lower Ohio Valley. Supported by persistent elevated moisture transport in vicinity of the frontal zone, scattered thunderstorms will be most prevalent today from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley. Relatively weak elevated buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates are likely to limit the potential for severe-caliber hail. Farther south, more isolated and somewhat less certain thunderstorm development is possible across parts of eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex region. If/where storms do develop, moderate surface-based buoyancy could support some stronger updrafts/downdrafts, but very weak deep-layer shear will limit storm organization with severe potential expected to remain very low. ...Florida Peninsula... Similar to yesterday, a moist air mass and semi-strong low/mid-level easterly winds will support westward-moving showers and thunderstorms today. Early day cloud cover and precipitation will tend to curb destabilization somewhat, but diurnal heating could contribute to a few stronger storms into the afternoon. While organized severe storms seem unlikely, a few thunderstorms storms could produce gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 10/19/2020
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