Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Intermountain West as southwest flow remains over the central U.S. A
cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Upper
Midwest as a low-level jet moves into the region from the southwest.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge of the
low-level jet from the central Plains northeastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. Instability
is forecast to be weak suggesting any severe threat would remain
marginal.

On Friday and Saturday, the medium-range models move a cold front
southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the
southeastern U.S. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along parts
of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. However,
instability is expected to be weak which will again keep any severe
threat marginal.

...Sunday/Day 7 to Monday/Day 8...
Model solutions sharply diverge late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Some
solutions show an upper-level trough in the western U.S. with others
having the trough further to the east into the Great Plains. If the
model solutions with the trough further east verify, then
thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough on Sunday and
Sunday night from the mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley
southwestward to the southern Plains. Under this scenario, the front
would move southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms would be possible along parts
of the front on Monday. However, the models are forecasting weak
instability in most areas suggesting any severe threat would be
marginal.

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