SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in the Upper Midwest Thursday evening.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the Great Plains
to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
quickly southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid
60s F which will contribute to the development of a narrow corridor
of instability during the late afternoon. As low-level convergence
increases along the front during the early evening, thunderstorms
are expected to develop. SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and
0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat mainly from northwest Missouri into southwest
Wisconsin. Hail and a few severe wind gusts will be possible with
the stronger cells. However, most of the convection is expected to
develop just behind the front where instability will be quite a bit
weaker. For this reason, any severe threat should remain marginal
Tuesday evening.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2020

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