SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in the Upper Midwest Thursday evening. The
hail threat could extend into parts of the central Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the central Plains
to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southeastward across the central Plains, mid Missouri Valley and
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong low-level convergence will likely
result in thunderstorm development just behind the front Thursday
evening. Although the strongest instability will be ahead of the
front, weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast
behind the front. Thunderstorms that develop in this environment
could have a hail threat. Isolated thunderstorms may also initiate
ahead of the front in the stronger instability. In the pre-frontal
airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to be near 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear
of 30 to 40 kt. Although conditional, rotating storms would be
possible in this environment. For this reason, hail, strong gusty
winds and a marginal tornado threat would be possible.

Further southwest into the central Plains, thunderstorm development
is forecast just behind the front during the mid to late evening.
Although instability will be weak behind the front, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 40 to 50 kt range. This would be enough for a
marginal hail threat with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Broyles.. 10/21/2020

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