Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in decent agreement on Saturday,
establishing southwest flow from the Great Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass will be in place
across much of the central and northeastern U.S. Thunderstorms could
develop in parts of the Gulf Coast States Saturday afternoon but
weak instability is expected to limit any severe threat. 

On Sunday, the models reinforce the cold airmass in the central U.S.
as a front moves quickly southward into the southern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front,
mainly from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great
Lakes. Instability will most likely be weak ahead of the front,
keeping any severe threat marginal Sunday afternoon.

...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
Southwest mid-level flow is maintained by the model solutions on
Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys into the Southeast. Thunderstorms could develop along the
front Monday and Tuesday afternoon. However, instability is forecast
to be very weak suggesting a severe threat would be limited.

On Wednesday, the models solutions diverge. Some models move an
upper-level low into the southern Plains during the day. Other
solutions move the upper-level low through the Desert Southwest.
This solutions move the system into the central Rockies Wednesday
night. Under that scenario, thunderstorms associated with a marginal
severe risk could develop in the Red River Valley Wednesday night as
low-level moisture return occurs. However, uncertainty is very high
due to the large spread of model solutions.

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