SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening over parts of eastern Iowa and small parts of adjoining
Illinois and Wisconsin.

...MO/IA/IL/WI...
Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
central Rockies that will emerge into the Plains this afternoon and
tonight.  Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will begin surging
southward across the Plains into IA/KS/OK by evening.  This front
will be the focus of lift and scattered precipitation later today.

12z CAM solutions are in strong agreement that thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon in vicinity of the cold front from
central IA into central WI.  A combination of a weak capping
inversion and strong ana-frontal low-level winds are expected to
relegate convective development to elevated storms behind the front.
 Stable near-surface conditions will limit the amount of convective
augmentation of larger-scale wind gusts, suggesting that the risk of
severe thunderstorm winds is marginal.  Sufficient elevated CAPE,
cool mid-level temperatures, and strong deep-layer shear may result
in hail in the more robust updrafts through this evening.

...West TX...
A small cluster of thunderstorms continues to be forecast for parts
of west TX this afternoon and evening in vicinity of a diffuse
surface dryline.  Forecast soundings suggest some risk of hail and
gusty winds in these storms through the early evening before
nocturnal cooling decreases the threat.

..Hart.. 10/22/2020

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