SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO/INDIANA VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... CORRECTED TEXT ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail -- will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from the Lake Erie vicinity to the mid Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... Broad upper cyclonic flow will be maintained across a large portion of the U.S. Friday, as one short-wave trough ejects northeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity into eastern Canada, while a second digs southeastward out of western Canada into the northern Intermountain region. At the surface, a cold front extending from the Great Lakes to Texas early Friday will continue advancing steadily eastward and southeastward. By Saturday morning, the boundary should stretch from the Northeast southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico. This front will focus an eastward-moving band of convection through the period. ...Ohio south-southwest to the Tennessee Valley area... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, along an advancing cold front. Some heating/destabilization is expected ahead of the front, yielding in modest destabilization. As a result, an afternoon uptick in convective intensity is expected, as storms cross the Ohio/mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. With moderate flow aloft resulting in sufficient shear for at least some updraft organization, a few stronger cells evolving within the broader zone of convection may become capable of producing marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts. However, the overall risk should remain limited, due to the rather modest CAPE/shear combination that is expected. Storms will continue moving eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, but should gradually weaken through the evening as convection approaches the west slopes of the Appalachians. ..Goss.. 10/22/2020
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