SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OHIO/INDIANA VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA...

CORRECTED TEXT

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing strong
wind gusts and hail -- will be possible Friday afternoon and evening
from the Lake Erie vicinity to the mid Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper cyclonic flow will be maintained across a large portion
of the U.S. Friday, as one short-wave trough ejects northeastward
across the Great Lakes vicinity into eastern Canada, while a second
digs southeastward out of western Canada into the northern
Intermountain region.  

At the surface, a cold front extending from the Great Lakes to Texas
early Friday will continue advancing steadily eastward and
southeastward.  By Saturday morning, the boundary should stretch
from the Northeast southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico. 
This front will focus an eastward-moving band of convection through
the period.

...Ohio south-southwest to the Tennessee Valley area...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday
morning from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, along an
advancing cold front.  Some heating/destabilization is expected
ahead of the front, yielding in modest destabilization.  As a
result, an afternoon uptick in convective intensity is expected, as
storms cross the Ohio/mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys.  With
moderate flow aloft resulting in sufficient shear for at least some
updraft organization, a few stronger cells evolving within the
broader zone of convection may become capable of producing
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.  However,
the overall risk should remain limited, due to the rather modest
CAPE/shear combination that is expected.  Storms will continue
moving eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, but should
gradually weaken through the evening as convection approaches the
west slopes of the Appalachians.

..Goss.. 10/22/2020

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