SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous U.S. on Sunday.

A positive-tilt, mid-level trough will amplify over the western
states as a potent disturbance moves equatorward along the West
Coast on Sunday through Sunday night.  A belt of strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Four Corners
northeastward across the central Great Plains and into the Great
Lakes.  In the low levels, a cold front initially over the northern
TX Panhandle will surge southward through central TX and near the
OK-TX-AR border by daybreak Monday.  

Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast
from TX northeastward into the southern Great Lakes during the Day-3
period.  However, it appears the onset of weak instability
translating to shower/thunderstorm potential will primarily occur
late Sunday into Sunday night immediately on or behind the surface
front.  Although a few brief stronger storms cannot be ruled out
(western Ozark Plateau), it appears the risk for organized severe
storms will be limited.  

Elsewhere, a few weak thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians in the
central and southern FL Peninsula.

..Smith.. 10/23/2020

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