SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur across the Florida Panhandle, but severe storms are unlikely. ...20Z Outlook Update... Changes to the categorical/10 percent probability of thunderstorms line have been made to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic features across Alabama/Georgia. Additionally, the development of sufficient large-scale forcing for ascent to overcome warm, dry layers aloft across all but parts of the southern Florida Peninsula appears increasingly unlikely through tonight. ..Kerr.. 10/24/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/ ...FL Panhandle today... A weak midlevel trough will move eastward from MS/AL toward GA by tonight, as an associated/weak surface reflection drifts eastward across southern AL through this evening. Convection is ongoing in a cluster from southeast AL across the FL Panhandle into the near-shore Gulf waters. The clouds and rain will reinforce an effective warm front near the northeast Gulf coast through the day, with the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 70s) and buoyancy expected to remain just offshore. The stronger storms in the cluster could have some loose organization and gusty outflow winds, as well as transient/weak midlevel rotation. However, relatively small hodographs/weak shear suggest that the threat for severe storms remains minimal.
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