SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur across the Florida Panhandle, but
severe storms are unlikely.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Changes to the categorical/10 percent probability of thunderstorms
line have been made to account for the progression of synoptic and
sub-synoptic features across Alabama/Georgia.  Additionally, the
development of sufficient large-scale forcing for ascent to overcome
warm, dry layers aloft across all but parts of the southern Florida
Peninsula appears increasingly unlikely through tonight.

..Kerr.. 10/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

...FL Panhandle today...
A weak midlevel trough will move eastward from MS/AL toward GA by
tonight, as an associated/weak surface reflection drifts eastward
across southern AL through this evening.  Convection is ongoing in a
cluster from southeast AL across the FL Panhandle into the
near-shore Gulf waters.  The clouds and rain will reinforce an
effective warm front near the northeast Gulf coast through the day,
with the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the
mid 70s) and buoyancy expected to remain just offshore.  The
stronger storms in the cluster could have some loose organization
and gusty outflow winds, as well as transient/weak midlevel
rotation.  However, relatively small hodographs/weak shear suggest
that the threat for severe storms remains minimal.

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