SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an associated surface cold front will move southward across the Carolinas in its wake. There will be a window of opportunity for isolated thunderstorms today in the zone of ascent across eastern NC, and where surface heating/destabilization will be greater along the front into central SC (prior to the onset of subsidence late today). Farther south, the threat for occasional thunderstorms will persist across south FL within a tropical moisture plume (PW values in excess of 2.3") that extends north-northeastward from tropical storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. Downstream from an amplified northeast Pacific ridge, and midlevel trough will continue to dig southward over the Great Basin. A confluent northern stream will help maintain a large/cold surface high immediately east of the Rockies, with the consolidated baroclinic zone on the leading edge of the cold air mass expected to extend from southwest TX to southeast OK by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into tonight in the vicinity of the Four Corners in the zone of ascent of ascent preceding the Great Basin trough, and in advance of an ejecting southern-stream now just off the southern CA coast. Farther east, elevated thunderstorm development is expected the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period in response to strengthening warm advection and destabilization atop the shallow cold air mass across northwest TX and OK from 06-12z. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 10/25/2020
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