SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... Amplified, large-scale eastern Pacific mid/upper ridging may become suppressed, as a vigorous short wave impulse progresses around its crest, from the Gulf of Alaska vicinity through southern Yukon. However, models suggest that an embedded high center to the south will generally maintain strength to the west of the California coast through this period. In response to these developments, it appears that a significant short wave trough, initially sharply digging to the lee of the ridge, will contribute to the evolution of a deepening mid-level low, near the base of amplifying larger-scale troughing to the southeast of the high center. The ECENS and NCEP SREF are in good agreement that this will take place across southern Arizona, generally Monday evening through daybreak Tuesday. Downstream, mid/upper ridging likely will gradually build across parts of the southern Great Plains and much of the Gulf Coast through South Atlantic Coast states. Along the southeastern periphery of this ridging, extending into the subtropical western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Zeta is forecast to migrate from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico, near the northern Yucatan Peninsula vicinity. As it does, models indicate that a broad plume of tropical moisture will overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico, and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, to the south of remnant frontal zone advancing away from the Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, seasonably moist air also is expected to continue advecting in a narrow plume around the northwestern periphery of the ridging, from the southern Great Plains through the lower Ohio Valley. But models indicate that this will occur above a reinforcing intrusion of cold air overspreading the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, while also continuing to dam southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, toward the Rio Grande Valley. Damming of more modestly cool air, associated with a preceding cold intrusion, appears likely to proceed to the lee of the southern Appalachian. And, aside from the southern Florida Peninsula, generally stable boundary-layer conditions are likely to prevail east of the Rockies, as well as across much of the West. ...Florida... Mid/upper support likely will be negligible/weak, but scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity appears possible Monday across southern into central portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley... Weak boundary-layer destabilization may be possible south of the leading edge of the reinforcing cold front, particularly across the Texas coastal plain. However, mid-level inhibition is expected to confine thunderstorm development to the vicinity of the mid-level baroclinic zone remaining quasi-stationary to the northwest. Scattered thunderstorm development may be ongoing early Monday, aided by frontogenetic forcing, and perhaps forcing in the right entrance region of a mid/upper jet forecast to shift from the southern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity through the Ozark Plateau during the day Monday. East of the evolving Southwestern mid-level low, increasing forcing for ascent may contribute to another round of thunderstorm development across parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country into Red River Valley Monday night. ..Kerr.. 10/25/2020
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