SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous U.S. through tonight.

...Southern Plains through Tuesday morning...
A shallow, cold air mass continues to move southward across central
TX.  Bands of elevated thunderstorms (some producing freezing rain
and sleet) are ongoing in association with warm advection and
frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer atop the frontal surface.  The
larger buoyancy aloft and stronger forcing for ascent are expected
to shift gradually southeast of the I-44 corridor in OK through this
afternoon into this evening.  Elevated convection should again
increase over northwest TX and spread northeastward into OK in
response to speed maxima ejecting northeastward in advance of the
closed mid-upper low forming over AZ.  Much of this convection after
06z will produce substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations
where boundary-layer temperatures will be below 32F (along and
northwest of I-44).

...South FL this afternoon...
Daytime heating within a maritime tropical air mass will support
scattered diurnal thunderstorm development along and south of a weak
front across central FL.  The convection will be a little more
concentrated in the deeper moist profiles across southwest FL.

..Thompson/Lyons.. 10/26/2020

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