SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks through tonight. ..Gleason.. 10/26/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/ ...Southern Plains through Tuesday morning... A shallow, cold air mass continues to move southward across central TX. Bands of elevated thunderstorms (some producing freezing rain and sleet) are ongoing in association with warm advection and frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer atop the frontal surface. The larger buoyancy aloft and stronger forcing for ascent are expected to shift gradually southeast of the I-44 corridor in OK through this afternoon into this evening. Elevated convection should again increase over northwest TX and spread northeastward into OK in response to speed maxima ejecting northeastward in advance of the closed mid-upper low forming over AZ. Much of this convection after 06z will produce substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations where boundary-layer temperatures will be below 32F (along and northwest of I-44). ...South FL this afternoon... Daytime heating within a maritime tropical air mass will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development along and south of a weak front across central FL. The convection will be a little more concentrated in the deeper moist profiles across southwest FL.
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