SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday morning for adjacent parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle in association with tropical cyclone Zeta. An isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm gusts may develop over the Carolinas and southern Virginia Thursday night. ...Synopsis... A fairly complex scenario with relative higher uncertainty is forecast for the day 3 period over the Southeast into the Carolinas and VA. Tropical cyclone Zeta will move from the AL/GA vicinity west of Atlanta and accelerate rapidly northeastward reaching Chesapeake Bay by early Thursday evening according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. The risk for a tornado may linger during the morning from parts of the FL Panhandle northeastward into central GA before low-level flow veers as Zeta becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Only marginal instability is expected to penetrate the areas north of the immediate coastal counties with less-available instability farther north into southwest GA. Nonetheless, a conditional risk for a supercell or two capable of a tornado could continue from the late Day 2 period into Day 3 across this region. By early evening, a mid-level low will open and feature a strengthening jet (100 kt at 500 mb) moving from northern AL northeastward across the Carolinas into southeast VA by early Friday morning. Significant mid-level height falls (120-180 m at 500 mb) will overspread central NC Thursday night. Concurrently, a cold front is forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Appalachians with intensifying frontal forcing in lee of the higher terrain. Model guidance currently indicates a moist boundary layer will become conditionally unstable with a cluster or band of storms potentially developing after dark. The transport of higher momentum aloft to the surface could materialize with a risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith.. 10/27/2020
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