SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected from late in the day Wednesday through Thursday morning over parts of the central Gulf Coast states in association with Zeta. ...Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle... Zeta is forecast to make landfall late in the day on Wednesday over southeast Louisiana, and will weaken as it moves toward northwest Georgia by Thursday morning. Preceding landfall, southeasterly low-level winds will maintain 70s F dewpoints across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will develop, and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day over southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Shear at this time will be marginal for any severe threat, but weak rotation will be possible with any cells. A rapid increase in low-level shear resulting in large, looping hodographs will occur after 00Z along and east of the center track. SBCAPE may only be a few hundred J/kg near the center due to warming aloft, but strong lift and very strong shear immediately east of the center track may lead to rotating storms and a couple tornadoes. Between 06-12Z Thursday morning, continued low-level theta-e advection, convergence extending southward into the northern Gulf and favorable shear may support a line of supercells from southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle where 0-1 SRH is expected to exceed 400 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat as well, before winds rapidly veer with the passage of Zeta to the north. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2020
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