SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


A few tornadoes are expected from late in the day Wednesday through
Thursday morning over parts of the central Gulf Coast states in
association with Zeta.

...Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle...
Zeta is forecast to make landfall late in the day on Wednesday over
southeast Louisiana, and will weaken as it moves toward northwest
Georgia by Thursday morning.

Preceding landfall, southeasterly low-level winds will maintain 70s
F dewpoints across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will develop, and
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day over
southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Shear at this time
will be marginal for any severe threat, but weak rotation will be
possible with any cells.

A rapid increase in low-level shear resulting in large, looping
hodographs will occur after 00Z along and east of the center track.
SBCAPE may only be a few hundred J/kg near the center due to warming
aloft, but strong lift and very strong shear immediately east of the
center track may lead to rotating storms and a couple tornadoes.

Between 06-12Z Thursday morning, continued low-level theta-e
advection, convergence extending southward into the northern Gulf
and favorable shear may support a line of supercells from southern
Alabama into the Florida Panhandle where 0-1 SRH is expected to
exceed 400 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat as well, before
winds rapidly veer with the passage of Zeta to the north.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2020

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