SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TC ZETA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected later today through the overnight over parts of the central Gulf Coast states in association with Zeta. ...TC Zeta... TC Zeta will be the primary focus for concern regarding the potential for tornado development later today. Early this morning, Zeta was located over the central Gulf basin and moving quickly northwest. However, it should begin curving northeast shortly then move onshore over southeast LA by early evening. Mid 70s surface dew points have already advanced inland across the central/eastern Gulf Coast region which has contributed to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at times. While weak convection will likely continue well ahead of Zeta due to modest buoyancy, low-level shear is not particularly strong at this time, and most storms will pose little appreciable threat in generating tornadoes. However, wind profiles will become increasingly favorable for supercells by early evening, along with some tornado threat. Will maintain SLGT Risk for tornadoes east of Zeta's expected landfall into the FL Panhandle. Have made minor adjustments to the MRGL Risk later in the period to reflect low-topped supercell threat immediately ahead of the remnant low center as it tracks toward northwest GA. ..Darrow/Cook.. 10/28/2020
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