SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TC ZETA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected later today through the overnight over
parts of the central Gulf Coast states in association with Zeta.

...TC Zeta...

TC Zeta will be the primary focus for concern regarding the
potential for tornado development later today. Early this morning,
Zeta was located over the central Gulf basin and moving quickly
northwest. However, it should begin curving northeast shortly then
move onshore over southeast LA by early evening. Mid 70s surface dew
points have already advanced inland across the central/eastern Gulf
Coast region which has contributed to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at times. While weak convection will likely continue
well ahead of Zeta due to modest buoyancy, low-level shear is not
particularly strong at this time, and most storms will pose little
appreciable threat in generating tornadoes. However, wind profiles
will become increasingly favorable for supercells by early evening,
along with some tornado threat. Will maintain SLGT Risk for
tornadoes east of Zeta's expected landfall into the FL Panhandle.
Have made minor adjustments to the MRGL Risk later in the period to
reflect low-topped supercell threat immediately ahead of the remnant
low center as it tracks toward northwest GA.

..Darrow/Cook.. 10/28/2020

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