SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday from the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia in association with tropical cyclone
Zeta.  An isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm gusts and
possibly a tornado is forecast over the Carolinas and southern
Virginia mainly Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
Tropical cyclone Zeta is forecast to rapidly move from the southern
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day according to
the latest National Hurricane Center forecast.  A tropical
cyclone-related tornado risk may continue from the late Day 1 period
(pre-dawn hours Thursday morning) into midday Thursday across parts
of the FL Panhandle northeastward into southern GA.  A supercell
wind profile and the access to very rich low-level moisture (mid 70s
surface dewpoints) will conditionally support a risk for storm
rotation.  The latest convection-allowing model guidance indicates
cellular convection within FL Panhandle-southern GA corridor.  If
uncertainty decreases, a mesoscale upgrade to 5-percent tornado
probabilities could occur in later outlooks.  

Farther north across the Carolinas, models indicate scant
instability during the day due to widespread clouds/rain in
association with Zeta.  Although a rotating thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out, it appears the greater conditional risk for
severe will begin early evening over the western Carolinas.  The
intense mid-level trough and associated speed max will overspread
the Carolinas.  Models suggest a surface low develops near the VA/NC
border as large-scale ascent and a sharp cold front push east of the
higher terrain.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible and a wind/tornado threat may develop and spread east
across the Carolinas and southern VA.  Exact details regarding the
overnight scenario are quite uncertain at this time and will be
continually re-evaluated in later outlooks.

..Smith.. 10/28/2020

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