SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta. An isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm gusts and possibly a tornado is forecast over the Carolinas and southern Virginia mainly Thursday night. ...Synopsis... Tropical cyclone Zeta is forecast to rapidly move from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. A tropical cyclone-related tornado risk may continue from the late Day 1 period (pre-dawn hours Thursday morning) into midday Thursday across parts of the FL Panhandle northeastward into southern GA. A supercell wind profile and the access to very rich low-level moisture (mid 70s surface dewpoints) will conditionally support a risk for storm rotation. The latest convection-allowing model guidance indicates cellular convection within FL Panhandle-southern GA corridor. If uncertainty decreases, a mesoscale upgrade to 5-percent tornado probabilities could occur in later outlooks. Farther north across the Carolinas, models indicate scant instability during the day due to widespread clouds/rain in association with Zeta. Although a rotating thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, it appears the greater conditional risk for severe will begin early evening over the western Carolinas. The intense mid-level trough and associated speed max will overspread the Carolinas. Models suggest a surface low develops near the VA/NC border as large-scale ascent and a sharp cold front push east of the higher terrain. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible and a wind/tornado threat may develop and spread east across the Carolinas and southern VA. Exact details regarding the overnight scenario are quite uncertain at this time and will be continually re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Smith.. 10/28/2020
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