SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist
Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern
Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta.

...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
The surface low associated with Zeta is expected to be over far
eastern TN Thursday morning, and will move rapidly east toward the
Delmarva by 00Z. Warm advection and strengthening shear will occur
over the Carolinas during the day, where dewpoints 68-70 F dewpoints
will contribute to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Areas just south and
east of the low track, along the southern periphery of the heavier
precipitation appears to have the greatest chance of an isolated
tornado or damaging wind gust during the day.

Southwest of this low, heating will occur over SC and GA, but
low-level winds will veer, reducing shear. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and mean wind speeds will conditionally favor strong to severe
gusts, though poor lapse rates aloft may mitigate more widespread
potential.

A somewhat better chance of isolated severe storms may exist
Thursday night as large-scale ascent with a shortwave trough
increases. The primary risk area for this time frame will be eastern
NC, where low-level moisture may remain ahead of a secondary surface
low. This threat is expected after 06Z, and isolated strong gusts or
a tornado will be possible.

..Jewell.. 10/28/2020

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