SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... The surface low associated with Zeta is expected to be over far eastern TN Thursday morning, and will move rapidly east toward the Delmarva by 00Z. Warm advection and strengthening shear will occur over the Carolinas during the day, where dewpoints 68-70 F dewpoints will contribute to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Areas just south and east of the low track, along the southern periphery of the heavier precipitation appears to have the greatest chance of an isolated tornado or damaging wind gust during the day. Southwest of this low, heating will occur over SC and GA, but low-level winds will veer, reducing shear. Still, strong deep-layer shear and mean wind speeds will conditionally favor strong to severe gusts, though poor lapse rates aloft may mitigate more widespread potential. A somewhat better chance of isolated severe storms may exist Thursday night as large-scale ascent with a shortwave trough increases. The primary risk area for this time frame will be eastern NC, where low-level moisture may remain ahead of a secondary surface low. This threat is expected after 06Z, and isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/28/2020
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