SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS TO SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Hurricane Zeta may spawn a few tornadoes this afternoon through
tonight from extreme southeast Louisiana/Mississippi into southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

...Southeast Louisiana...southern Alabama...Florida Panhandle...
A tornado watch has been issued until 05Z in anticipation of
increasing convection and shear associated with Hurricane Zeta.
Low-level shear will continue to increase along and east of the
center track later this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg
is already in place well inland, which should maximize time for
cells to attain rotation and pose a tornado threat.

..Jewell.. 10/28/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

...Southeast LA this afternoon to AL/GA through tonight...
Hurricane Zeta is expected to make landfall late this afternoon
along the LA coast to the south of New Orleans (please see latest
NHC advisories for details).  The weakening remnants of Zeta will
then accelerate northeastward through tonight across AL/GA, to the
east of a deep midlevel low over the southern Plains.  An influx of
tropical moisture and associated buoyancy will continue through the
day along the north central and northeast Gulf coast as Zeta
progresses north-northeastward.  

Some more cellular convection has been observed this morning over
the northern Gulf.  An increase in low-midlevel flow and vertical
shear will occur as Zeta approaches the coast as the mid 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints spread inland with muted daytime heating,
which will increase the threat for supercells/tornadoes in the outer
northeastern and eastern convective bands.  The more favorable
phasing of buoyancy/vertical shear will occur this afternoon/evening
from extreme southeast LA into southern AL/western FL Panhandle. 
Poor lapse rates near the warm core center of Zeta and diurnal
stabilization should gradually limit the threat farther inland
overnight, though strong wind profiles and marginal CAPE rooted near
the surface may still support an isolated tornado overnight into GA,
to the southeast of the center.

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