SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS TO SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Zeta may spawn a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight from extreme southeast Louisiana/Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast Louisiana...southern Alabama...Florida Panhandle... A tornado watch has been issued until 05Z in anticipation of increasing convection and shear associated with Hurricane Zeta. Low-level shear will continue to increase along and east of the center track later this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg is already in place well inland, which should maximize time for cells to attain rotation and pose a tornado threat. ..Jewell.. 10/28/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/ ...Southeast LA this afternoon to AL/GA through tonight... Hurricane Zeta is expected to make landfall late this afternoon along the LA coast to the south of New Orleans (please see latest NHC advisories for details). The weakening remnants of Zeta will then accelerate northeastward through tonight across AL/GA, to the east of a deep midlevel low over the southern Plains. An influx of tropical moisture and associated buoyancy will continue through the day along the north central and northeast Gulf coast as Zeta progresses north-northeastward. Some more cellular convection has been observed this morning over the northern Gulf. An increase in low-midlevel flow and vertical shear will occur as Zeta approaches the coast as the mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints spread inland with muted daytime heating, which will increase the threat for supercells/tornadoes in the outer northeastern and eastern convective bands. The more favorable phasing of buoyancy/vertical shear will occur this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast LA into southern AL/western FL Panhandle. Poor lapse rates near the warm core center of Zeta and diurnal stabilization should gradually limit the threat farther inland overnight, though strong wind profiles and marginal CAPE rooted near the surface may still support an isolated tornado overnight into GA, to the southeast of the center.
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