SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta. ...TC Zeta... Remnants of TC Zeta are lifting quickly northeast across central AL early this morning. Zeta will eject across the southern Appalachians into VA by 18z, then off the Middle Atlantic Coast by early evening. 70s surface dew points have spread inland across most of GA and coastal SC and this air mass will provide at least weak buoyancy supporting convection within a strongly sheared environment. While lightning will not be that common with this convection, deeper updrafts should attain heights necessary for a few flashes. Forecast soundings characteristically exhibit poor lapse rates, but very moist profiles should contribute to low-topped supercells across the risk area. Earlier thoughts regarding the overall severe threat remain -- primarily the possibility for a few brief weak tornadoes, and perhaps some gusty winds with the most organized convection. ..Darrow/Cook.. 10/29/2020
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