SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern North
Carolina and far southeast Virginia on Sunday.

...NC northward to southeast coastal NJ...
An intense and amplifying mid-level trough will evolve into a closed
500 mb low as it moves from the Great Lakes on Sunday morning to the
Northeast by early Monday morning.  In the low levels, a surface low
initially over northeast Ontario will consolidate with a surface low
developing off the NJ coast and a strong surface cyclone is forecast
over the Gulf of Maine/coastal Maine late Sunday night.  

During the morning to midday hours, the strengthening surface trough
over the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in intensifying low-level flow
and the northward transport of mid-upper 50s F dewpoints into the
Delmarva and lower 60s in eastern NC.  Strong differential advection
via cooling aloft in the mid levels and moistening in the low
levels, will result in a destabilizing boundary layer by early
afternoon.  Operational suite of models are generally showing the
development of 500 J/kg SBCAPE over eastern NC with 100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE as far north as the southern half of NJ.  Forecast soundings
show very strong low-level shear and enlarged hodographs over the
narrow warm sector near the immediate coast.  Strong mid-level
height falls (90-150 m per 12 hr) are expected to overspread the
VA/NC warm sector during the day.  Given the above mentioned
factors, it seems plausible a forced convective line will evolve
over the Mid-Atlantic states.  The risk for isolated strong to
severe gusts may accompany this convective line before moving off
the coast by early evening.  Farther south over eastern NC, a
supercell threat could evolve near the immediate coast with an
attendant isolated wind/tornado hazard.  

Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will generally prevail across much
of the remainder of the contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 10/31/2020

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