SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern North
Carolina and far southeast Virginia on Sunday.

...NC northward to southeast coastal NJ...
An intense and amplifying mid-level trough will evolve into a closed
500 mb low as it moves from the Great Lakes on Sunday morning to the
Northeast by early Monday morning.  In the low levels, a surface low
initially over northeast Ontario will consolidate with a surface low
developing off the NJ coast and a strong surface cyclone is forecast
over the Gulf of Maine/coastal Maine late Sunday night.  

During the morning to midday hours, the strengthening surface trough
over the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in intensifying low-level flow
and the northward transport of mid-upper 50s F dewpoints into the
Delmarva and lower 60s in eastern NC.  Strong differential advection
via cooling aloft in the mid levels and moistening in the low
levels, will result in a destabilizing boundary layer by early
afternoon.  Operational suite of models are generally showing the
development of 500 J/kg SBCAPE over eastern NC with 100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE as far north as the southern half of NJ.  Forecast soundings
show very strong low-level shear and enlarged hodographs over the
narrow warm sector near the immediate coast.  Strong mid-level
height falls (90-150 m per 12 hr) are expected to overspread the
VA/NC warm sector during the day.  Given the above mentioned
factors, it seems plausible a forced convective line will evolve
over the Mid-Atlantic states.  The risk for isolated strong to
severe gusts may accompany this convective line before moving off
the coast by early evening.  Farther south over eastern NC, a
supercell threat could evolve near the immediate coast with an
attendant isolated wind/tornado hazard.  

Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will generally prevail across much
of the remainder of the contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 10/31/2020

Read more
There’s more click here.

Comments are closed.