SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia on Sunday. ...NC northward to southeast coastal NJ... An intense and amplifying mid-level trough will evolve into a closed 500 mb low as it moves from the Great Lakes on Sunday morning to the Northeast by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a surface low initially over northeast Ontario will consolidate with a surface low developing off the NJ coast and a strong surface cyclone is forecast over the Gulf of Maine/coastal Maine late Sunday night. During the morning to midday hours, the strengthening surface trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in intensifying low-level flow and the northward transport of mid-upper 50s F dewpoints into the Delmarva and lower 60s in eastern NC. Strong differential advection via cooling aloft in the mid levels and moistening in the low levels, will result in a destabilizing boundary layer by early afternoon. Operational suite of models are generally showing the development of 500 J/kg SBCAPE over eastern NC with 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE as far north as the southern half of NJ. Forecast soundings show very strong low-level shear and enlarged hodographs over the narrow warm sector near the immediate coast. Strong mid-level height falls (90-150 m per 12 hr) are expected to overspread the VA/NC warm sector during the day. Given the above mentioned factors, it seems plausible a forced convective line will evolve over the Mid-Atlantic states. The risk for isolated strong to severe gusts may accompany this convective line before moving off the coast by early evening. Farther south over eastern NC, a supercell threat could evolve near the immediate coast with an attendant isolated wind/tornado hazard. Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will generally prevail across much of the remainder of the contiguous United States. ..Smith.. 10/31/2020
There’s more click here.