SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong/severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern
North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough crossing the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley
area through the beginning of the period/Sunday morning is expected
to amplify further with time, while advancing eastward across the
eastern half of the country.  Meanwhile, west of the trough, ridging
will prevail over the West.

At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a low near the
Quebec/Ontario border area -- is forecast to be crossing the Great
Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys early Sunday.  The front will
continue moving quickly eastward, crossing the Appalachians during
the afternoon and reaching the coast by early evening, where a weak
secondary low/frontal wave may develop along the boundary off the
Mid Atlantic Coast, and shift northward along the New England Coast
through the end of the period.

...Eastern North Carolina and Coastal Virginia...
Some northward advection of low-level moisture off the Atlantic is
expected to occur across the Mid Atlantic area and southern New
England, ahead of the advancing cold front.  As this occurs, minimal
afternoon CAPE development is expected from coastal southern New
England southward to the Chesapeake Bay area.  More substantial CAPE
development is expected farther south, from far southeastern
Virginia across eastern North Carolina, as well as over parts of
Florida.  As a result, showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop by late morning/midday across this region,
spreading eastward and then shifting offshore in conjunction with
frontal advance.

Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow on the leading flank of the
upper system will also overspread the region from west to east
during the day.  This increasing shear, across areas with ample
CAPE, will support a few more vigorous storms -- particularly across
the eastern North Carolina vicinity, where CAPE/shear combination is
expected to be maximized during the early afternoon hours.  As such,
some risk for locally damaging wind gusts -- and possibly a brief
tornado -- remains evident with a few of the strongest storms. 
Therefore, will maintain 5% wind probability/MRGL risk level across
this region, until the front -- and associated convection -- move
offshore through late afternoon.

..Goss.. 10/31/2020

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