SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and locally damaging wind risk exists across the eastern North Carolina vicinity between about 1 to 5 PM EST. ...Eastern NC vicinity... Scattered showers are ongoing from SC to central VA within a low-level warm advection regime. The southern portion of this activity should develop into thunderstorms around midday as richer low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s surface dew points along the SC/far southern NC coast are advected north. With surface temperatures expected to warm into the mid 70s, MLCAPE should briefly reach 500-1000 J/kg before convection spreads offshore by early evening. Low-level hodographs will become increasingly enlarged as a swath of 40-45 kt 850-mb winds shift east and overlap the confined warm sector ahead of the leading cold front. 0-1 km SRH appears likely to reach 150-250 m2/s2 and would be conducive to a supercell or two capable of producing a tornado along with locally damaging winds across mainly far eastern NC, including the Outer Banks. ...Central FL... Isolated to scattered slow-moving thunderstorms should develop as low-level convergence strengthens along an intensifying cold front this afternoon and evening. Poor mid-level lapse rates yielding thin and weak buoyancy amid little lower-level shear will be limiting factors to an organized severe risk. ..Grams/Gleason.. 11/01/2020
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