SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z


A tornado and locally damaging wind risk exists across the eastern
North Carolina vicinity between about 1 to 5 PM EST.

...Eastern NC vicinity...
Scattered showers are ongoing from SC to central VA within a
low-level warm advection regime. The southern portion of this
activity should develop into thunderstorms around midday as richer
low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s surface dew points along
the SC/far southern NC coast are advected north. With surface
temperatures expected to warm into the mid 70s, MLCAPE should
briefly reach 500-1000 J/kg before convection spreads offshore by
early evening. 

Low-level hodographs will become increasingly enlarged as a swath of
40-45 kt 850-mb winds shift east and overlap the confined warm
sector ahead of the leading cold front. 0-1 km SRH appears likely to
reach 150-250 m2/s2 and would be conducive to a supercell or two
capable of producing a tornado along with locally damaging winds
across mainly far eastern NC, including the Outer Banks. 

...Central FL...
Isolated to scattered slow-moving thunderstorms should develop as
low-level convergence strengthens along an intensifying cold front
this afternoon and evening. Poor mid-level lapse rates yielding thin
and weak buoyancy amid little lower-level shear will be limiting
factors to an organized severe risk.

..Grams/Gleason.. 11/01/2020

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