SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z


A tornado and locally damaging thunderstorm wind risk exists across
eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia between about 1 to

...Eastern North Carolina/coastal southeast Virginia...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur today into
tonight over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward the Eastern
Seaboard. Low-level moisture characterized by low/mid 60s F surface
dewpoints continues to increase/stream northward across coastal
North Carolina ahead of increasingly organized convection near/ahead
of a wind shift and sharpening front.

Short-term anticipations are that a low-topped quasi-linear
convective line (much of it with little or no lightning flashes)
will continue to evolve early this afternoon across
east-central/northeast North Carolina into coastal southeast
Virginia, with the possibility that semi-discrete thunderstorms will
precede this band across the immediate coast of North Carolina
(within 50-70 miles of the Atlantic). MLCAPE may briefly reach
500-1000 J/kg before convection spreads offshore by early evening.

Low-level hodographs will become increasingly enlarged as a swath of
40-45 kt 850-mb winds shift east and overlap the confined warm
sector ahead of the leading cold front. Locally damaging
convectively enhanced winds will be a concern with the linearly
organized convection or the convection preceding it. Given that 0-1
km SRH appears likely to reach 150-250 m2/s2, a supercell or two
capable of producing a tornado will also be possible mainly across
far eastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks. 

...Central Florida...
Slow-moving thunderstorms are occurring late this morning about 50
miles west of the west-central Florida coast, with other showers/few
thunderstorms also occurring near the east-central Florida coast.
Modest destabilization will support development across/into other
parts of the interior. While gusty thunderstorm winds may occur,
poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal deep-layer/low-level shear
will likely preclude an organized severe risk.

..Guyer.. 11/01/2020

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