SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and locally damaging thunderstorm wind risk exists across eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia between about 1 to 5 PM EST. ...Eastern North Carolina/coastal southeast Virginia... Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur today into tonight over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Low-level moisture characterized by low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints continues to increase/stream northward across coastal North Carolina ahead of increasingly organized convection near/ahead of a wind shift and sharpening front. Short-term anticipations are that a low-topped quasi-linear convective line (much of it with little or no lightning flashes) will continue to evolve early this afternoon across east-central/northeast North Carolina into coastal southeast Virginia, with the possibility that semi-discrete thunderstorms will precede this band across the immediate coast of North Carolina (within 50-70 miles of the Atlantic). MLCAPE may briefly reach 500-1000 J/kg before convection spreads offshore by early evening. Low-level hodographs will become increasingly enlarged as a swath of 40-45 kt 850-mb winds shift east and overlap the confined warm sector ahead of the leading cold front. Locally damaging convectively enhanced winds will be a concern with the linearly organized convection or the convection preceding it. Given that 0-1 km SRH appears likely to reach 150-250 m2/s2, a supercell or two capable of producing a tornado will also be possible mainly across far eastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks. ...Central Florida... Slow-moving thunderstorms are occurring late this morning about 50 miles west of the west-central Florida coast, with other showers/few thunderstorms also occurring near the east-central Florida coast. Modest destabilization will support development across/into other parts of the interior. While gusty thunderstorm winds may occur, poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal deep-layer/low-level shear will likely preclude an organized severe risk. ..Guyer.. 11/01/2020
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