SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe risk will gradually decrease over the next 1 to 2 hours
across far eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks, as storms
move offshore.

...Discussion...
As storms continue moving eastward across coastal North Carolina in
conjunction with the advancing cold front, organization has been
limited -- with storms primarily oriented in quasi-linear manner. 
Though limited/local risk for a stronger wind gust, or brief
tornado/waterspout is still evident, this potential will diminish
from west to east over the next couple of hours, as storms move
offshore.  

Elsewhere, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are ongoing
across the Florida Peninsula ahead of the cold front, but any severe
risk here would be isolated/minimal this afternoon.

Finally, a few lightning flashes persist over portions of
south-central Pennsylvania, the adjacent Maryland/West Virginia
Panhandles.  However, as convection crosses the ridges, downsloping
suggests that lingering lightning should further diminish with time.
 As such, a thunder area will not be introduced for this region.

..Goss.. 11/01/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020/

...Eastern North Carolina/coastal southeast Virginia...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur today into
tonight over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward the Eastern
Seaboard. Low-level moisture characterized by low/mid 60s F surface
dewpoints continues to increase/stream northward across coastal
North Carolina ahead of increasingly organized convection near/ahead
of a wind shift and sharpening front.

Short-term anticipations are that a low-topped quasi-linear
convective line (much of it with little or no lightning flashes)
will continue to evolve early this afternoon across
east-central/northeast North Carolina into coastal southeast
Virginia, with the possibility that semi-discrete thunderstorms will
precede this band across the immediate coast of North Carolina
(within 50-70 miles of the Atlantic). MLCAPE may briefly reach
500-1000 J/kg before convection spreads offshore by early evening.

Low-level hodographs will become increasingly enlarged as a swath of
40-45 kt 850-mb winds shift east and overlap the confined warm
sector ahead of the leading cold front. Locally damaging
convectively enhanced winds will be a concern with the linearly
organized convection or the convection preceding it. Given that 0-1
km SRH appears likely to reach 150-250 m2/s2, a supercell or two
capable of producing a tornado will also be possible mainly across
far eastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks. 

...Central Florida...
Slow-moving thunderstorms are occurring late this morning about 50
miles west of the west-central Florida coast, with other showers/few
thunderstorms also occurring near the east-central Florida coast.
Modest destabilization will support development across/into other
parts of the interior. While gusty thunderstorm winds may occur,
poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal deep-layer/low-level shear
will likely preclude an organized severe risk.

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