Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2020 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential should remain low through day 4 and 5 (Friday-Saturday) as offshore flow persists over the Gulf keeping richer low-level moisture confined to the Gulf Coast region. An exception could be later day 5 when some of the global models indicate south FL could be impacted by a tropical cyclone. However, solutions differ considerably regarding the strength and trajectory of this feature. Days 6-7 (Sunday-Monday) Upper pattern will amplify with a large upper trough becoming established across the western U.S. by day 6. By day 7 a significant shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast through the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. While the associated lee cyclone will contribute to the return of modified CP air through the pre-frontal warm sector, it remains unclear if moisture return will be sufficient for a more robust severe threat. A better chance for severe storms might evolve by day 7 from a portion of the central and southern Plains into the middle MS Valley region as the strengthening cold front advances southeast and interacts with a moistening boundary layer.
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