Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2020

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should remain low through day 4 and 5
(Friday-Saturday) as offshore flow persists over the Gulf keeping
richer low-level moisture confined to the Gulf Coast region. An
exception could be later day 5 when some of the global models
indicate south FL could be impacted by a tropical cyclone. However,
solutions differ considerably regarding the strength and trajectory
of this feature. 

Days 6-7 (Sunday-Monday) Upper pattern will amplify with a large
upper trough becoming established across the western U.S. by day 6.
By day 7 a significant shortwave trough is forecast to eject
northeast through the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. While
the associated lee cyclone will contribute to the return of modified
CP air through the pre-frontal warm sector, it remains unclear if
moisture return will be sufficient for a more robust severe threat.
A better chance for severe storms might evolve by day 7 from a
portion of the central and southern Plains into the middle MS Valley
region as the strengthening cold front advances southeast and
interacts with a moistening boundary layer.

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