SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2020

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from parts of the Colorado Plateau, the risk for thunderstorms
appears negligible across much of the U.S. tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
With the onset of boundary-layer cooling, weak thunderstorm activity
has become increasingly limited to a couple of lingering storms
north of the Grand Canyon area into the southern Wasatch Mountains. 
This is near a remnant mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, which
will continue eastward across the Colorado Plateau vicinity
overnight.  Although elevated moisture return is becoming cut off,
it is possible that weak conditional instability associated with
remnant moisture could continue to support additional thunderstorm
development, aided by the dynamic forcing for ascent.  However,
thunderstorm probabilities may be increasingly near the minimum
threshold (10 percent) for a categorical thunder area, and seem
likely to become increasingly negligible through the overnight
hours.

..Kerr.. 11/04/2020

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