SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from portions of southeast Florida coastal areas and the Keys,
the risk for thunderstorm activity appears negligible across much of
the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Stronger mid/upper westerlies are trending generally zonal and
confined to latitudes near/north of the Canadian/U.S. border, and
models indicate that this will persist through this period. 

Within the weaker southern mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies,
several weak waves (most pronounced in upper levels) will progress
around the northern through northeastern periphery of suppressed
subtropical ridging, across the southern Great Plains into the
southwestern Atlantic.  However, potentially cool/stable air
associated with lingering surface ridging is forecast to persist
across much of the Gulf Coast region.  

Models do suggest that there may be some erosion of this surface
ridging across parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern
Florida Peninsula, and Bahamas, where deep-layered low-level
moisture return is possible tonight.  This may be accompanied by a
risk for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity across
southeast Florida coastal areas and the Keys late tonight into early
Thursday.

Otherwise, elsewhere, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible.

..Kerr.. 11/04/2020

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