SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2020 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from portions of southeast Florida coastal areas and the Keys, the risk for thunderstorm activity appears negligible across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Stronger mid/upper westerlies are trending generally zonal and confined to latitudes near/north of the Canadian/U.S. border, and models indicate that this will persist through this period. Within the weaker southern mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies, several weak waves (most pronounced in upper levels) will progress around the northern through northeastern periphery of suppressed subtropical ridging, across the southern Great Plains into the southwestern Atlantic. However, potentially cool/stable air associated with lingering surface ridging is forecast to persist across much of the Gulf Coast region. Models do suggest that there may be some erosion of this surface ridging across parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida Peninsula, and Bahamas, where deep-layered low-level moisture return is possible tonight. This may be accompanied by a risk for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity across southeast Florida coastal areas and the Keys late tonight into early Thursday. Otherwise, elsewhere, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 11/04/2020
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