Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Saturday) Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central and northern High Plains, especially during the last half of the period as a significant shortwave trough moves through the base of a synoptic upper low and emerges over the central High Plains late Saturday night. The northward advection of modified CP air will commence, but boundary layer moisture and instability are expected to remain insufficient for a threat of severe storms. Day 5 (Sunday) Tropical cyclone Eta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to approach southern FL Sunday evening and might undergo some strengthening, but predictability is not sufficient to introduce severe probabilities at this time. Elsewhere,in association with a shortwave trough ejecting northeast through the central Plains, a lee cyclone will move northeast, reaching ND during the evening with trailing cold front extending southward through the northern and central Plains. Modified CP air will continue advecting northward through pre-frontal warm sector contributing to weak instability over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley region. Thunderstorms might develop along this front within a strongly sheared environment from the eastern Dakotas into MN by evening. However, the anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment could remain a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat. Day 6 (Monday) Some threat for strong to severe storms might exist as storms develop along a cold front from the Midwest into the central Plains. Some severe threat might also persist across FL depending on track and magnitude of a tropical cyclone associated with remnants of Eta. In both of these scenarios, predictability and confidence in a more substantial severe threat remain low at this time.
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