SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern continues to favor a mostly lightning-free day1 period as meager moisture/instability currently reside across the CONUS. A few areas where some convective threat exists are, 1) along the Pacific Northwest Coast, and 2) the southeast Atlantic Coast/portions of FL. Intense mid-level height falls are forecast to spread inland along the OR/northern CA Coast late in the period ahead of an upper low that should near the northern CA Coast after 06z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest strong mid-level cooling during the overnight hours such that profiles become increasingly favorable for weak convection ahead of the low. By sunrise Friday, the strongest updrafts could generate lightning, primarily offshore where marine influences will result in a bit more instability. Low-latitude moisture plume that is currently suppressed south of the FL Straits is forecast to gradually advance north as high-level heights relax and allow for deeper southeasterly trajectories. While latest data does not suggest any appreciable disturbance(s) into the southeastern US, gradually moistening profiles suggest weak convection could develop offshore and approach the Atlantic Coast/south FL region. The strongest updrafts could generate a few flashes of lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2020
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