SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
today.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern continues to favor a mostly lightning-free day1
period as meager moisture/instability currently reside across the
CONUS. A few areas where some convective threat exists are, 1) along
the Pacific Northwest Coast, and 2) the southeast Atlantic
Coast/portions of FL.

Intense mid-level height falls are forecast to spread inland along
the OR/northern CA Coast late in the period ahead of an upper low
that should near the northern CA Coast after 06z. Forecast soundings
along the coast suggest strong mid-level cooling during the
overnight hours such that profiles become increasingly favorable for
weak convection ahead of the low. By sunrise Friday, the strongest
updrafts could generate lightning, primarily offshore where marine
influences will result in a bit more instability.

Low-latitude moisture plume that is currently suppressed south of
the FL Straits is forecast to gradually advance north as high-level
heights relax and allow for deeper southeasterly trajectories. While
latest data does not suggest any appreciable disturbance(s) into the
southeastern US, gradually moistening profiles suggest weak
convection could develop offshore and approach the Atlantic
Coast/south FL region. The strongest updrafts could generate a few
flashes of lightning.

..Darrow.. 11/05/2020

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