Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5... The medium-range models have a large upper-level low pressure system in the western U.S. on Sunday, with southwest mid-level flow across the central U.S. This general pattern is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place for both Sunday and Monday across the Southeast. Although thunderstorms could develop in the Southeast in areas that heat up the most, a severe threat is not expected due to weak instability. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... On Tuesday, the models quickly eject the upper-level system northeastward out of the Rockies and into the central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the system Tuesday afternoon and evening along a front which is forecast to be located in the mid Mississippi Valley by 00Z Wednesday. Instability could be strong enough for a marginal or isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level system across the Great Lakes. If the timing of the system is correct, then a potential for thunderstorms may develop along parts of the eastern Seaboard. Instability is forecast to be weak along the east coast on Wednesday which should minimize any severe potential. On Thursday, the models move an upper-level trough quickly eastward across the Rockies. While some moisture return could occur in the southern Plains ahead of the system, instability is again forecast to be weak. This would minimize any severe threat ahead of the system.
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