Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5...
The medium-range models have a large upper-level low pressure system
in the western U.S. on Sunday, with southwest mid-level flow across
the central U.S. This general pattern is forecast to gradually shift
eastward on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place for
both Sunday and Monday across the Southeast. Although thunderstorms
could develop in the Southeast in areas that heat up the most, a
severe threat is not expected due to weak instability.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the models quickly eject the upper-level system
northeastward out of the Rockies and into the central U.S.
Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the system Tuesday afternoon
and evening along a front which is forecast to be located in the mid
Mississippi Valley by 00Z Wednesday. Instability could be strong
enough for a marginal or isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level system across the
Great Lakes. If the timing of the system is correct, then a
potential for thunderstorms may develop along parts of the eastern
Seaboard. Instability is forecast to be weak along the east coast on
Wednesday which should minimize any severe potential. On Thursday,
the models move an upper-level trough quickly eastward across the
Rockies. While some moisture return could occur in the southern
Plains ahead of the system, instability is again forecast to be
weak. This would minimize any severe threat ahead of the system.

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