SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period. Although, two areas of the country should experience isolated weak convection, some of which may produce lightning. ...Pacific Coast... Intense 500mb height falls (~210m/12hr) will spread south along the central Pacific Coast later today. Very cold mid-level temperatures will be noted with the upper low that settles into central CA by sunrise Saturday morning. These cooling temperatures will result in steepening profiles that should result in adequate buoyancy for at least isolated convection. Some of this activity may generate a few lightning flashes, especially near the coast where onshore flow will be a bit more moist than inland. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast Atlantic Coast... Late-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a notable mid-level short-wave trough is digging slowly south across east TX/lower MS Valley region. This feature is forecast to stall along the upper TX Coast/southern LA until heights begin to fall across the southern High Plains later Saturday. Until then, trajectories will gradually become more favorable for moisture to advance northwest around the southern periphery of middle Atlantic ridging. The greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be near the Gulf/southeast Atlantic Coasts. Forecast instability/forcing appear inadequate for any meaningful risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 11/06/2020
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