SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming
day1 period. Although, two areas of the country should experience
isolated weak convection, some of which may produce lightning.

...Pacific Coast...

Intense 500mb height falls (~210m/12hr) will spread south along the
central Pacific Coast later today. Very cold mid-level temperatures
will be noted with the upper low that settles into central CA by
sunrise Saturday morning. These cooling temperatures will result in
steepening profiles that should result in adequate buoyancy for at
least isolated convection. Some of this activity may generate a few
lightning flashes, especially near the coast where onshore flow will
be a bit more moist than inland.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast Atlantic Coast...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a notable mid-level
short-wave trough is digging slowly south across east TX/lower MS
Valley region. This feature is forecast to stall along the upper TX
Coast/southern LA until heights begin to fall across the southern
High Plains later Saturday. Until then, trajectories will gradually
become more favorable for moisture to advance northwest around the
southern periphery of middle Atlantic ridging. The greatest risk for
isolated thunderstorms will be near the Gulf/southeast Atlantic
Coasts. Forecast instability/forcing appear inadequate for any
meaningful risk of severe thunderstorms.

..Darrow.. 11/06/2020

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