SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD DISCUSSION ABOUT TROPICAL SYSTEM ETA ...SUMMARY... Low-end tornado risk could evolve late in the period with the arrival of tropical system ETA to the Florida Keys vicinity. ...DISCUSSION... A upper-level low pressure system will move slowly across the western U.S. on Sunday as flow remains south-southwesterly across the central states. Moisture return will take place across the southern Plains and Arklatex as a strong low-level jet develops in the Great Plains. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet Sunday night from the Texas Panhandle north-northeastward into the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Other thunderstorms will be possible across southern sections of the Atlantic Seaboard, with some tornado risk possibly evolving over southern Florida and the Keys, late in the period. ...Southern Florida and the Florida Keys... Latest NHC forecasts show Tropical Depression ETA -- currently just east of Belize -- moving northeastward with time. The storm is forecast to strengthen to tropical-storm strength, and should reach Cuba by Sunday morning -- i.e. the start of the Day 3 period. Current forecasts then depict the storm taking a northward/northwestward turn, reaching the Florida Keys vicinity by 12Z Monday. Based on the current track forecast, strong low-level easterly flow would spread northward toward -- and eventually into -- south Florida Sunday, with 0-1 shear potentially becoming supportive of low-level rotation in cellular convection through latter stages of the period. While uncertainty precludes introduction of a risk area at this time, a low-probability tornado risk area will be considered in the next outlook update, north and northeast of the forecast track of the system. ..Goss.. 11/06/2020
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