SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD DISCUSSION ABOUT TROPICAL SYSTEM ETA

...SUMMARY...
Low-end tornado risk could evolve late in the period with the
arrival of tropical system ETA to the Florida Keys vicinity.

...DISCUSSION...
A upper-level low pressure system will move slowly across the
western U.S. on Sunday as flow remains south-southwesterly across
the central states. Moisture return will take place across the
southern Plains and Arklatex as a strong low-level jet develops in
the Great Plains. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible on the
western edge of the low-level jet Sunday night from the Texas
Panhandle north-northeastward into the northern Plains and mid
Missouri Valley. Other thunderstorms will be possible across
southern sections of the Atlantic Seaboard, with some tornado risk
possibly evolving over southern Florida and the Keys, late in the
period.

...Southern Florida and the Florida Keys...
Latest NHC forecasts show Tropical Depression ETA -- currently just
east of Belize -- moving northeastward with time.  The storm is
forecast to strengthen to tropical-storm strength, and should reach
Cuba by Sunday morning -- i.e. the start of the Day 3 period. 
Current forecasts then depict the storm taking a
northward/northwestward turn, reaching the Florida Keys vicinity by
12Z Monday.  

Based on the current track forecast, strong low-level easterly flow
would spread northward toward -- and eventually into -- south
Florida Sunday, with 0-1 shear potentially becoming supportive of
low-level rotation in cellular convection through latter stages of
the period.  While uncertainty precludes introduction of a risk area
at this time, a low-probability tornado risk area will be considered
in the next outlook update, north and northeast of the forecast
track of the system.

..Goss.. 11/06/2020

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