SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States on Saturday. ...Discussion... A highly amplified flow field aloft will persist over the U.S. this weekend. An upper low -- initially situated over the CA/NV vicinity Saturday morning, is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving eastward across the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. Meanwhile, a new closed low -- still within the broader/highly amplified cyclonic flow field -- is forecast to evolve over the OR/NV vicinity as short-wave troughing digs southward out of western Canada. While cyclonic flow expands to cover the western half of the country, ridging will persist in the east. Within the broader ridge however, a weak low centered over the north-central Gulf/southern Louisiana area will linger, while farther to the southeast, tropical system Eta is expected to shift northward into Cuba early Sunday morning. Showers and local/embedded thunderstorms are forecast to evolve across portion of the Intermountain West Saturday afternoon, and continuing through the period, as a strong cold front -- associated with the upper troughing -- advances eastward. Very strong flow aloft will support strong/gusty gradient winds, especially at higher elevations. While a forced/broken frontal band of convection may evolve across portions of the Four Corners states during the afternoon and evening, it remains unclear that any severe-level convectively enhanced gusts will occur due to meager instability. As such, no convective wind probabilities will be included in the outlook at this time. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions. However, weak instability should preclude any appreciable severe weather risk. ..Goss.. 11/06/2020
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