SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified flow field aloft will persist over the U.S. this
weekend.  An upper low -- initially situated over the CA/NV vicinity
Saturday morning, is forecast to evolve into an open wave while
moving eastward across the Great Basin/Four Corners states through
the period.  Meanwhile, a new closed low -- still within the
broader/highly amplified cyclonic flow field -- is forecast to
evolve over the OR/NV vicinity as short-wave troughing digs
southward out of western Canada.  

While cyclonic flow expands to cover the western half of the
country, ridging will persist in the east.  Within the broader ridge
however, a weak low centered over the north-central Gulf/southern
Louisiana area will linger, while farther to the southeast, tropical
system Eta is expected to shift northward into Cuba early Sunday
morning.

Showers and local/embedded thunderstorms are forecast to evolve
across portion of the Intermountain West Saturday afternoon, and
continuing through the period, as a strong cold front -- associated
with the upper troughing -- advances eastward.  Very strong flow
aloft will support strong/gusty gradient winds, especially at higher
elevations.  While a forced/broken frontal band of convection may
evolve across portions of the Four Corners states during the
afternoon and evening, it remains unclear that any severe-level
convectively enhanced gusts will occur due to meager instability. 
As such, no convective wind probabilities will be included in the
outlook at this time.

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected
across portions of the southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions. 
However, weak instability should preclude any appreciable severe
weather risk.

..Goss.. 11/06/2020

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