Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... An upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday and into the southern Plains on Tuesday. Some moisture return is expected ahead of the approaching system in the southern Plains, where thunderstorm development will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the southern Plains, weak instability should keep any threat isolated. The potential for thunderstorm development is forecast to continue into Tuesday evening across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks but weak instability is again expected to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, the medium-range models move the upper-level trough into the Great Lakes and maintain southwest mid-level flow across much of the continental United States. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place along the eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday. The models keep the airmass weakly unstable Wednesday afternoon along most of the Eastern Seaboard suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. On Thursday and Friday, the models quickly move an upper-level trough across the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes as another trough moves into the Rockies. Although thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of this system in parts of the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley, weak instability is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal. Predictability is quite low during the mid week time-frame.
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