Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward
across the Four Corners region on Monday and into the southern
Plains on Tuesday. Some moisture return is expected ahead of the
approaching system in the southern Plains, where thunderstorm
development will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Although an
isolated severe threat will be possible in the southern Plains, weak
instability should keep any threat isolated. The potential for
thunderstorm development is forecast to continue into Tuesday
evening across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks but weak
instability is again expected to keep any severe threat isolated.

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday and Thursday, the medium-range models move the
upper-level trough into the Great Lakes and maintain southwest
mid-level flow across much of the continental United States. A moist
airmass is forecast to be in place along the eastern Seaboard where
thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday. The models
keep the airmass weakly unstable Wednesday afternoon along most of
the Eastern Seaboard suggesting that any severe threat will remain
marginal. On Thursday and Friday, the models quickly move an
upper-level trough across the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes
as another trough moves into the Rockies. Although thunderstorm
development will be possible ahead of this system in parts of the
Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley, weak instability
is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal. Predictability
is quite low during the mid week time-frame.

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