SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the mid
Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on
Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the
central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
east-southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains.
A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints possibly reaching the lower 60s F from eastern Kansas into
eastern Oklahoma. As weak destabilization occurs during the day
along and just ahead of the front, thunderstorm development is
expected. Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase from late
afternoon into the evening as a line of storms moves eastward across
western Iowa, southeast Nebraska and central Kansas. More isolated
development could occur southward into western Oklahoma. Although
strong deep-layer shear will be in place, SBCAPE is forecast to
remain below 500 J/kg in most areas. For this reason, any severe
threat is expected to be marginal. Hail and gusty winds will be the
primary threats.

...South Florida/Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression Eta
to strengthen and become a Tropical Storm today. The system is
forecast to move northward to near the Florida Keys by early Monday
morning. At that time, rainbands associated with Eta will likely be
in the Florida Keys and across south Florida. Forecast soundings
Monday morning in south Florida show veering winds with height in
the lowest 3 km above ground level and have strong speed shear in
the boundary layer. As a result, 0-1 km shear is forecast to be near
35 kt which will support storm rotation with discrete cells in the
rainbands of Eta. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to move
west-northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on
Monday suggesting any tornado potential that develops could
gradually diminish across south Florida by Monday evening. At this
time, forecast tornado probabilities are too low to add a
categorical risk area.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2020

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