SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance east-southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints possibly reaching the lower 60s F from eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. As weak destabilization occurs during the day along and just ahead of the front, thunderstorm development is expected. Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase from late afternoon into the evening as a line of storms moves eastward across western Iowa, southeast Nebraska and central Kansas. More isolated development could occur southward into western Oklahoma. Although strong deep-layer shear will be in place, SBCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas. For this reason, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. ...South Florida/Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression Eta to strengthen and become a Tropical Storm today. The system is forecast to move northward to near the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. At that time, rainbands associated with Eta will likely be in the Florida Keys and across south Florida. Forecast soundings Monday morning in south Florida show veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km above ground level and have strong speed shear in the boundary layer. As a result, 0-1 km shear is forecast to be near 35 kt which will support storm rotation with discrete cells in the rainbands of Eta. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to move west-northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Monday suggesting any tornado potential that develops could gradually diminish across south Florida by Monday evening. At this time, forecast tornado probabilities are too low to add a categorical risk area. ..Broyles.. 11/07/2020
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