SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms across parts of
eastern Arizona and western New Mexico late this afternoon and early
evening.

...20Z Update...
No changes appear warranted in this Outlook update cycle. Additional
heating this afternoon in conjunction with a strong wind field and
the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent should lead to an
increase in thunderstorms across eastern Arizona/western New Mexico,
some of which may produce strong/locally severe-caliber winds.

..Guyer.. 11/07/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020/

...AZ/NM...
A large upper low over central CA will track slowly eastward today,
with lift and mid-level moisture spreading across much of the Great
Basin and Four Corners area.  A few pockets of thunderstorms will
affect this general area later today, with one area of likely
convective development across eastern AZ.  Vertical mixing and
northward advection of moisture is expected to result in pockets of
afternoon surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  While
clouds are persisting in parts of the region, a few pockets of
heating will yield max CAPE values around 500 J/kg.  This, combined
with relatively fast flow aloft, could result in gusty winds in the
strongest cores.  The threat should diminish a few hours after
sunset.

...Southern CA...
A potent shortwave trough is rotating inland toward the LA Basin
today.  This is expected to result in a few thunderstorms -
primarily along the mountain ranges north of LA.  Cold temperatures
aloft could result in small hail in the stronger cells, but
organized severe storms are not anticipated.

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