SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2020 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms across parts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico late this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... No changes appear warranted in this Outlook update cycle. Additional heating this afternoon in conjunction with a strong wind field and the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent should lead to an increase in thunderstorms across eastern Arizona/western New Mexico, some of which may produce strong/locally severe-caliber winds. ..Guyer.. 11/07/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020/ ...AZ/NM... A large upper low over central CA will track slowly eastward today, with lift and mid-level moisture spreading across much of the Great Basin and Four Corners area. A few pockets of thunderstorms will affect this general area later today, with one area of likely convective development across eastern AZ. Vertical mixing and northward advection of moisture is expected to result in pockets of afternoon surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. While clouds are persisting in parts of the region, a few pockets of heating will yield max CAPE values around 500 J/kg. This, combined with relatively fast flow aloft, could result in gusty winds in the strongest cores. The threat should diminish a few hours after sunset. ...Southern CA... A potent shortwave trough is rotating inland toward the LA Basin today. This is expected to result in a few thunderstorms - primarily along the mountain ranges north of LA. Cold temperatures aloft could result in small hail in the stronger cells, but organized severe storms are not anticipated.
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