Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to quickly move northeastward from
the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along a front from the
southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. Instability
is forecast to be weak along most of the front, suggesting any
severe threat will remain isolated. Surface dewpoints could reach
the lower 60s F in parts of the southern Plains where the severe
threat could be greater. However, the severe potential remains
highly uncertain due to instability concerns.

On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into
southeastern Canada and maintain southwest mid-level flow across the
central and eastern United States. A moist airmass is forecast along
the Eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although an isolated severe threat
can not be ruled out, weak instability is expected to keep any
threat marginal Wednesday afternoon.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
From Thursday to Saturday, the models move an upper-level trough
from the Great Plains into the northeastern U.S. Moisture return
ahead of this system is forecast to be minimal. Thunderstorms could
develop Thursday afternoon in parts of the southern Plains and along
the coast of the Carolinas during the day on Friday. But instability
in these two areas should be weak, minimizing any severe potential.
No severe threat is expected on Saturday due to limited moisture
return in the southern U.S., but predictability is quite low at the
extended ranges.

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