Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to quickly move northeastward from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will be possible along a front from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. Instability is forecast to be weak along most of the front, suggesting any severe threat will remain isolated. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F in parts of the southern Plains where the severe threat could be greater. However, the severe potential remains highly uncertain due to instability concerns. On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into southeastern Canada and maintain southwest mid-level flow across the central and eastern United States. A moist airmass is forecast along the Eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out, weak instability is expected to keep any threat marginal Wednesday afternoon. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, the models move an upper-level trough from the Great Plains into the northeastern U.S. Moisture return ahead of this system is forecast to be minimal. Thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon in parts of the southern Plains and along the coast of the Carolinas during the day on Friday. But instability in these two areas should be weak, minimizing any severe potential. No severe threat is expected on Saturday due to limited moisture return in the southern U.S., but predictability is quite low at the extended ranges.
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