SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS AND IN VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal tornado threat will be possible early in the period across south Florida and the Florida Keys. ...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four Corners region on Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains established across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance quickly southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection will take place as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s F from west-central Oklahoma northeastward into north-central Missouri. In spite of the moisture, instability will remain weak ahead of the front due to abundant cloud cover and cool surface temperatures. For this reason, convective initiation is expected to hold off until evening when a band of strong large-scale ascent approaches from the west. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the mid to late evening from northwest Missouri southwestward into central and western Oklahoma. NAM forecast soundings from 06Z to 09Z Tuesday from Wichita, KS to Clinton, OK have MUCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg range with 60 to 70 kt of deep-layer shear. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for marginal hail threat. A few strong wind gusts can not be ruled out as well. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the front, moving eastward into eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri during the late night period. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Eta to be located over the Florida Keys at daybreak on Monday and then to move westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day. Rainbands associated with Eta should be located across south Florida Monday morning. Model forecast suggest that a band of strong low-level winds will exist across the Florida Keys around 12Z on Monday. Forecast soundings at that time at Key Biscayne have 0-1 km shear from 30 to 35 kt with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. This should be adequate for a tornado threat mainly from 12Z to 18Z, before low-level shear begins to weaken across south Florida. Rotating cells that remain semi-discrete will have tornado potential, but the threat is expected to remain very isolated. ..Broyles.. 11/08/2020
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