SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks
northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as a cold front
advances eastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints likely
reaching the lower 60s F across a large parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. At the start of the period, thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing from central Oklahoma northeastward into
northern Missouri. The models suggest that the line will move
east-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi
Valley during the day. Instability is forecast to peak around
midday, when some solutions have SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg
range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 80 kt
should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The stronger
cells embedded in the line could produce strong wind gusts. Hail
will be possible with cells that form in areas that destabilize the
most. Due to abundant cloud cover and relatively cool surface
temperatures, instability is expected to remain weak, keeping any
severe threat that develops marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2020

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