SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as a cold front advances eastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints likely reaching the lower 60s F across a large parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. At the start of the period, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing from central Oklahoma northeastward into northern Missouri. The models suggest that the line will move east-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi Valley during the day. Instability is forecast to peak around midday, when some solutions have SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 80 kt should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The stronger cells embedded in the line could produce strong wind gusts. Hail will be possible with cells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Due to abundant cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures, instability is expected to remain weak, keeping any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/08/2020
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