SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected from late this afternoon through tonight and early Monday across south Florida and the Keys as Tropical Storm Eta approaches. ...20Z Update... Have upgraded portions of near-coastal southern Florida and the Upper Florida Keys for what is anticipated to be an increasing tornado risk this evening into the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. While 18Z observed soundings from Miami and Key West were not indicative of overly strong low-level SRH (50-150 m2/s2), low-level winds are expected to steadily strengthen through late afternoon into tonight as Eta approaches and potentially further strengthens. ..Guyer.. 11/08/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020/ ...South FL... TS Eta is moving slowly northwestward toward the FL Straits. Radar/satellite imagery show an area of heavier precipitation on the north side of the center. This area is forecast by most CAM solutions to approach the coast of southeast FL and the upper Keys after dark. Current observations and forecast solutions suggest that this activity will not be particularly organized, with relatively weak UH tracks/convective elements noted. Nevertheless, low-level shear will maximize during this period, which appears to be of greatest concern for a tornado or two this forecast period. The main time of concern will be roughly from 00-06z. Based on current guidance, will maintain MRGL risk, but will continue to monitor observational/model trends.
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