SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado threat is expected from late this afternoon through
tonight and early Monday across south Florida and the Keys as
Tropical Storm Eta approaches.

...20Z Update...
Have upgraded portions of near-coastal southern Florida and the
Upper Florida Keys for what is anticipated to be an increasing
tornado risk this evening into the overnight and early morning hours
of Monday. While 18Z observed soundings from Miami and Key West were
not indicative of overly strong low-level SRH (50-150 m2/s2),
low-level winds are expected to steadily strengthen through late
afternoon into tonight as Eta approaches and potentially further
strengthens.

..Guyer.. 11/08/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020/

...South FL...
TS Eta is moving slowly northwestward toward the FL Straits. 
Radar/satellite imagery show an area of heavier precipitation on the
north side of the center.  This area is forecast by most CAM
solutions to approach the coast of southeast FL and the upper Keys
after dark.  Current observations and forecast solutions suggest
that this activity will not be particularly organized, with
relatively weak UH tracks/convective elements noted.  Nevertheless,
low-level shear will maximize during this period, which appears to
be of greatest concern for a tornado or two this forecast period. 
The main time of concern will be roughly from 00-06z.  Based on
current guidance, will maintain MRGL risk, but will continue to
monitor observational/model trends.

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