Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Great Plains on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Appalachian Mountains. A moist airmass should be in place along much of the Eastern Seaboard, where thunderstorm development will be possible from parts of southeastern New York southward into the Carolinas. In spite of the moisture, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the front. Although a few marginally severe storms may develop, the weak instability should keep any severe threat very isolated. On Thursday, the front is forecast to move to the coast of the Carolinas. Low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the front across parts of the Carolinas and southeastern Georgia. Although instability should remain weak ahead of the front, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out along the immediate coast from Georgia northeastward to eastern North Carolina. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the southern Rockies and suggest moisture will return on the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon along the western edge of this moist airmass in the Texas Hill Country. Convective coverage may expand northeastward across parts of the southern Plains as moisture return takes place Friday night. However, instability along the moist axis is expected to remain weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, model solutions sharply diverge. Some solutions move an upper-level trough into the southern Plains while others move an upper-level trough northeastward into the Great Lakes region. The models do suggest a moist airmass will be in place from parts of east Texas eastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms that form each day across this moist airmass should have a potential for a isolated severe threat. However, weak instability is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal.
There’s more click here.