SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado risk will exist across South Florida and the Florida Keys
this morning. A few thunderstorms capable of hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across the south-central Plains this evening
into the overnight.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Eta
calls for some modest intensification during the early morning hours
in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. The center of Eta is expected
to be just west of Key West by 12z this morning. Nevertheless, a
strong low-level wind field will remain over the southern FL
Peninsula and Keys for several hours during the morning, maintaining
sufficient 0-1 km SRH and low level shear for transient rotating
cells. A risk for a couple of tornadoes will likely be confined to
the morning hours, before a gradual lessening of the threat occurs
with time into the afternoon hours as Eta drifts westward. 

...South-Central Plains Vicinity...

A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will
develop eastward to western portions of the Great Plains by Tuesday
morning. Strong southerly low level flow will overspread the
southern/central Plains today, transporting modest moisture
northward across OK, eastern KS and portions of the Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will drop southeast across
the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a dryline extends
southward from the western OK/TX border into western TX. These
features will continue to develop south and east during the evening
and overnight hours, becoming a focus for thunderstorm development
from western OK/central KS northeastward. Steepening midlevel lapse
rates will occur with cooling aloft, leading to weak elevated
instability, and adequate deep layer shear will be in place to
support a few organized cells. A few stronger storms could produce
marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts during the evening and
nighttime hours from western OK into eastern KS and parts of
northwestern MO.

..Leitman.. 11/09/2020

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