SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A tornado risk will exist across South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning. A few thunderstorms capable of hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across the south-central Plains this evening into the overnight. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... The latest National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Eta calls for some modest intensification during the early morning hours in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. The center of Eta is expected to be just west of Key West by 12z this morning. Nevertheless, a strong low-level wind field will remain over the southern FL Peninsula and Keys for several hours during the morning, maintaining sufficient 0-1 km SRH and low level shear for transient rotating cells. A risk for a couple of tornadoes will likely be confined to the morning hours, before a gradual lessening of the threat occurs with time into the afternoon hours as Eta drifts westward. ...South-Central Plains Vicinity... A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will develop eastward to western portions of the Great Plains by Tuesday morning. Strong southerly low level flow will overspread the southern/central Plains today, transporting modest moisture northward across OK, eastern KS and portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will drop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a dryline extends southward from the western OK/TX border into western TX. These features will continue to develop south and east during the evening and overnight hours, becoming a focus for thunderstorm development from western OK/central KS northeastward. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will occur with cooling aloft, leading to weak elevated instability, and adequate deep layer shear will be in place to support a few organized cells. A few stronger storms could produce marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts during the evening and nighttime hours from western OK into eastern KS and parts of northwestern MO. ..Leitman.. 11/09/2020
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