SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward on Tuesday from the Great Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance east-southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing along the front from eastern Iowa south-southwestward into western Missouri at the start of the period. As the upper-level trough approaches from the southwest, strong large-scale ascent will sustain the line during the day as it moves eastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. Model forecasts over the last couple of runs have substantially increased forecast instability across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Current model solutions suggest that SBCAPE could peak in the 400 to 600 J/kg range in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into north-central Illinois. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 70 kt, evident on forecast soundings, should support a marginal severe threat along the leading edge of the line. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. The line of storms is forecast to reach eastern Illinois and southern Lake Michigan by early evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2020
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