SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks and mid to upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward on Tuesday
from the Great Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, a cold front will advance east-southeastward across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of thunderstorms is forecast
to be ongoing along the front from eastern Iowa south-southwestward
into western Missouri at the start of the period. As the upper-level
trough approaches from the southwest, strong large-scale ascent will
sustain the line during the day as it moves eastward across the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability by
afternoon. 

Model forecasts over the last couple of runs have substantially
increased forecast instability across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Current model solutions suggest that SBCAPE could peak in
the 400 to 600 J/kg range in the afternoon from eastern Missouri
into north-central Illinois. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear of 60 to 70 kt, evident on forecast soundings, should support
a marginal severe threat along the leading edge of the line. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more intense parts of
the line. The line of storms is forecast to reach eastern Illinois
and southern Lake Michigan by early evening.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2020

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