SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out tonight over portions of central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... A strong cold front is surging southward today across the plains states, and will extend from northwest OK into central KS later tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection atop the stable surface boundary will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms behind the front. Forecast soundings in this zone suggest sufficient CAPE for the risk of hail in the stronger cells. A pronounced inversion behind the front will diminish the risk of convective downdrafts reaching the surface. ...South FL... TS Eta continues to move slowly westward and away from South FL. Radar/model trends suggest a few showers/thunderstorms may still affect the immediate southwest coast of FL and the Keys this afternoon. However, VAD profiles at KEY/TBW/MFL show low-level SRH/shear steadily weakening. Given the trends, have removed the 2% tornado probabilities from this region. ..Hart.. 11/09/2020
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