SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out tonight over portions of
central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma.

...Central Plains...
A strong cold front is surging southward today across the plains
states, and will extend from northwest OK into central KS later
tonight.  Low-level warm/moist advection atop the stable surface
boundary will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms behind
the front.  Forecast soundings in this zone suggest sufficient CAPE
for the risk of hail in the stronger cells.  A pronounced inversion
behind the front will diminish the risk of convective downdrafts
reaching the surface.

...South FL...
TS Eta continues to move slowly westward and away from South FL. 
Radar/model trends suggest a few showers/thunderstorms may still
affect the immediate southwest coast of FL and the Keys this
afternoon.  However, VAD profiles at KEY/TBW/MFL show low-level
SRH/shear steadily weakening.  Given the trends, have removed the 2%
tornado probabilities from this region.

..Hart.. 11/09/2020

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